statistical tie

English[edit]

statistical tie (plural statistical ties)

(idiomatic, chiefly politics) A situation in which the difference in popularity of two options in a poll is less than the margin of error.
- 2022 October 21, Philip Klein, “Republicans Close Gap in Michigan and Minnesota Governor Races, Polls Say”, in National Review‎^[2], New York, N.Y.: National Review, Inc., →ISSN, →OCLC, archived from the original on 19 September 2023:
  In the final weeks of the campaign, Republicans have pulled within statistical ties in the Michigan and Minnesota governor's races where Democrats are heavy favorites, according to new polls released on Friday.
Used other than figuratively or idiomatically: see statistical,‎ tie.
- 2020 March 24, Andrew Freedman, Simon Denyer, “Warm, humid weather could slow coronavirus, new research finds”, in The Washington Post‎^[3], Washington, D.C.: The Washington Post Company, →ISSN, →OCLC, archived from the original on 24 March 2020:
  Multiple early studies provide evidence of statistical ties between temperature and humidity ranges and the geographic regions where this virus has thrived.

The term statistical tie has been criticized as misleading, as a statistical tie does not necessarily indicate an actual tie.^[1]

^ Carl Bialik (2007 December 6) “What's a Statistical Tie, Anyway?”, in The Wall Street Journal‎^[1], New York, N.Y.: Dow Jones & Company, →ISSN, →OCLC, archived from the original on 6 August 2021:
Several polling experts told me they don't care much for the term "statistical tie." "It's certainly not a term that practitioners use," Nancy A. Mathiowetz, president of the professional group American Association for Public Opinion Research, told me. Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com, added, "'Statistical tie' is one of those expressions I wish we could do away with." ¶ Their gripe with the term: It suggests that the statistics indicate there is a tie between the candidates. Instead, it's used when statistics can't demonstrate a difference between candidates' support. The term is used when "we lack the statistical power to know for certain which candidate is ahead," said Mr. Blumenthal, a former longtime Democratic pollster. "It doesn't mean we know that they are 'tied.'"